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The next time someone predicts blood in the streets after a pro-Second Amendment ruling, the Second Amendment Foundation wants gun owners to have the receipts ready.
SAF has released a new fact sheet titled The Bloodbath That Never Came. The 10-page resource collects 85 predictions from gun-control organizations, activists and public officials who warned that expanding gun rights would trigger more shootings, deaths and violence.
The document then places those warnings alongside the crime data that followed.
Table of contents
Eighty-Five Predictions, All in One Place
The fact sheet covers several major Second Amendment developments:
- 39 predictions following New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen
- 17 predictions tied to permitless-carry laws
- 11 predictions following Garland v. Cargill
- 11 predictions involving the elimination of certain National Firearms Act taxes and subsequent litigation
- Seven predictions concerning recent DOJ and ATF policy changes
The sources include Brady, Everytown, Giffords and March For Our Lives. SAF also collected statements from elected officials, candidates and other public figures.
Each prediction links back to its original source. That makes the sheet more useful than a simple collection of talking points. Readers can see who made the claim, when it was made and exactly what was predicted.
SAF Director of Legal Research and Education Kostas Moros prepared the report.
“They were not even close,” Moros said of the repeated predictions that expanded gun rights would produce more deaths.
What Happened to Violent Crime?
SAF compares those warnings with revised FBI crime estimates showing three consecutive annual declines in murder:
- 9.1% in 2023
- 13.7% in 2024
- 18.1% in 2025
The FBI also reported that overall violent crime declined 9.3% in 2025. According to the bureau, that represented the largest annual decline since it began producing national estimates in 1936.
The national murder rate fell from 6.6 per 100,000 people in 2022 to 4.1 in 2025. SAF calculated that total murders dropped approximately 36% during that period.
Other data highlighted in the report include a 21% decline in homicides across 35 large cities during 2025. That amounted to 922 fewer homicides, according to the Council on Criminal Justice.
New York City also recorded 688 shooting incidents in 2025, the lowest number in its recorded history. Murders fell 20.2%, from 382 to 305.
Preliminary FBI data through July 2026 showed the murder rate among reporting agencies running 20.8% below the same period in 2025. SAF estimates that continuing the trend would produce a national rate of roughly 3.2 murders per 100,000 people.
That 3.2 figure is SAF’s projection, not an official FBI annual estimate. The final 2026 numbers are not yet available.
What the Report Does and Does Not Claim
SAF includes an important qualifier that should not get lost.
The organization is not claiming that Bruen, permitless carry, the Cargill decision or changes to the NFA caused crime to fall. Crime trends are affected by numerous economic, social and law-enforcement factors.
The narrower argument is that the predicted surges in violence did not happen.
Gun-control advocates repeatedly described these rulings and reforms as imminent public-safety disasters. Instead, murder and violent crime moved sharply in the opposite direction during the years covered by the report.
That distinction makes the document much harder to dismiss. It does not need to prove that expanded gun rights reduced crime. It only needs to compare the predictions with the results.
Bookmark This One
For Second Amendment advocates, writers and anyone tired of arguing from memory, this is a useful resource to keep handy.
It collects the original claims, identifies their sources and places the relevant crime numbers beside them. No frantic Google search is required the next time an official warns that a gun-rights decision will immediately unleash chaos.
SAF Executive Director Adam Kraut said the goal is to give people researched numbers instead of recycled rhetoric.
Download the complete SAF fact sheet, The Bloodbath That Never Came or see below:
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is a seasoned outdoorsman, lifelong hunter, and the kind of guy who’d rather track whitetails than scroll social media. As an editor for GunsAmerica, he’s got a sharp eye for spotting both solid gear and bad gun laws. Whether he’s deep in the woods or deep in editorial deadlines, Larry brings a no-nonsense, tell-it-like-it-is approach to firearms, hunting, and the great American tradition of self-reliance. If there’s a hot debate on gun rights or the latest in hunting tech, you can bet Larry’s got an opinion—and it’s probably backed up with both facts and field experience.
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