Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

If you ask most people which developed country has the worst violent crime problem, the answer is usually the United States.

It’s a claim repeated by politicians, media outlets, and even foreign governments. The argument often goes something like this: America has more guns, so naturally it has more violent crime.

But according to new research from economist and Crime Prevention Research Center President Dr. John Lott, that conclusion depends almost entirely on which statistics you’re looking at.

In a new investigation published by Real Clear Investigations, Lott argues that when you compare the total number of people who say they’ve actually been victims of crime (not just crimes reported to police) the United States often fares much better than commonly believed.

And in some categories, it fares better than Canada and Australia.

Police Reports Aren’t the Whole Story

Lott says one of the biggest mistakes people make when comparing crime between countries is relying solely on police reports.

The problem? Not every crime gets reported.

That’s why countries like the United States, Canada, and Australia all conduct large victimization surveys. Instead of counting police reports, researchers ask thousands of people whether they’ve personally been victims of crimes such as robbery, assault, sexual assault, or burglary: even if they never called police.

The U.S. uses the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), which interviews roughly 240,000 Americans every year.

Canada conducts a similar General Social Survey, while Australia operates its own national victimization survey. Lott argues those surveys paint a much different picture.

Murder Isn’t the Whole Crime Story

Lott readily acknowledges one statistic. America’s homicide rate remains higher.

In 2025, the U.S. murder rate was roughly four per 100,000 people. About double Canada’s and Australia’s recent homicide rates.

But he argues homicide represents only a tiny slice of violent crime. According to the NCVS, murders accounted for only about 0.21 percent of violent crimes committed in the United States.

“So if you’re trying to understand what everyday crime looks like,” Lott argues, “you need to look beyond homicide.”

Australia Looks Different Under Victim Surveys

One of the biggest surprises in Lott’s analysis involves Australia. Using victimization survey data instead of police reports, he concludes Australia’s:

• Sexual assault rate is roughly three times higher than the United States.
• Assault rate is about twice as high.
• Burglary rate is roughly 2.5 times higher.
• Robbery rates are relatively similar.

He also argues Australia’s surveys likely undercount repeat victimizations because they record victims rather than individual criminal incidents.

Canada Doesn’t Come Out Looking Better Either

Canada also challenges the conventional narrative. Lott writes that Canada’s victimization survey reported violent crime rates far above what police statistics suggest.

After adjusting for differences between the U.S. and Canadian surveys, he concludes Canada’s overall violent crime victimization rate was at least 175 percent higher than the U.S. in 2019.

Robbery rates, he says, were 268 percent higher, while burglary rates were 259 percent higher.

Why Don’t Victims Call Police?

Another point Lott raises involves reporting rates. He cites experts who argue people are less likely to report crimes when they believe offenders won’t be caught or prosecuted.

Canadian criminologist Gary Mauser says victimization surveys provide a much more complete picture of crime than police reports alone.

University of Georgia professor David Mustard goes a step further.

“The extremely low reporting rates in Australia and Canada raise serious doubts about public confidence in their criminal justice systems,” he said.

Not Everyone Agrees

Lott’s conclusions aren’t likely to end the debate. International crime comparisons are notoriously difficult.

Countries define crimes differently. Survey methods vary. Cultural differences also affect whether people report crimes to police or even participate in victimization surveys.

Even Lott acknowledges direct comparisons require caution because survey methodologies aren’t identical.

Still, he argues the available evidence consistently challenges the popular belief that America is uniquely dangerous.

The Bigger Question

Whether readers agree with Lott or not, his research raises an important question.

If victimization surveys capture crimes that never make it into police reports, should they carry more weight than official crime statistics when comparing countries? Or are police-reported numbers still the better benchmark?

Lott believes the answer is clear. His research argues that relying only on police reports paints an incomplete and often misleading picture of public safety.

It’s a debate that’s likely to continue, especially as policymakers cite international crime comparisons in arguments over gun laws, criminal justice reform, and public safety.

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