Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
The FBI’s numbers suggest armed citizens rarely stop active shooters. John Lott and the Crime Prevention Research Center say the real figure is far higher.
According to the CPRC, FBI reports identified 408 active-shooter incidents between 2014 and 2025. The FBI credited armed civilians with stopping 16 of them, or 3.9%.
CPRC researchers built their own database using local news reports, police statements and other public records. They identified 615 qualifying incidents during the same period.
Armed citizens reportedly stopped 225 of those attacks. That works out to 36.6%, according to the group.
The Gun-Free-Zone Factor
The CPRC also separated locations where civilian firearm possession was prohibited.
Among 376 attacks occurring where guns were allowed, armed citizens reportedly stopped 199. That pushes the intervention rate to 52.9%.
For 2025, the group places that figure at 58.3% in its analysis of locations where civilian carry was permitted.
The argument is straightforward. Armed citizens cannot intervene with firearms when they followed rules requiring them to leave those firearms behind.
Why Are the Numbers So Different?
This is not simply a disagreement over percentages. It starts with which shootings qualify for the database.
The FBI defines an active shooter as someone actively killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area. Its reports exclude many shootings connected to gangs, drugs, domestic disputes, robberies, crossfire and self-defense.
CPRC says it applied the same general definition but found numerous missed or misclassified incidents.
The group also argues that the FBI sometimes labels armed congregants or employees as security personnel. That removes those interventions from the armed-civilian category.
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One example involves the 2019 West Freeway Church of Christ shooting in Texas. Volunteer church member Jack Wilson shot and killed the attacker. The FBI classified Wilson as security personnel, while CPRC counted him as an armed civilian.
CPRC says the FBI also omitted 51 incidents where armed citizens prevented likely mass shootings. Researchers identified another 156 missed active-shooter cases.
Those classification decisions dramatically change the final result.
The FBI’s reports are not designed to cover every shooting. However, Lott argues that journalists and policymakers frequently treat the agency’s limited numbers as a complete national picture.
CPRC has published its case list and supporting links so readers can examine the disputed incidents themselves.
The bottom line depends heavily on the starting dataset. Using the FBI’s list produces 3.9%. Using CPRC’s expanded list produces at least 36.6%.
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is a seasoned outdoorsman, lifelong hunter, and the kind of guy who’d rather track whitetails than scroll social media. As an editor for GunsAmerica, he’s got a sharp eye for spotting both solid gear and bad gun laws. Whether he’s deep in the woods or deep in editorial deadlines, Larry brings a no-nonsense, tell-it-like-it-is approach to firearms, hunting, and the great American tradition of self-reliance. If there’s a hot debate on gun rights or the latest in hunting tech, you can bet Larry’s got an opinion—and it’s probably backed up with both facts and field experience.
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name of the game skew the facts to push that agenda since most will accept what is put forward as gospel!