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The CDC’s defensive gun-use numbers are back. But after a four-year disappearing act, Dr. John Lott says the bigger question is why the agency removed them in the first place.
In a recent One America News interview, the Crime Prevention Research Center president argued that political pressure influenced how the federal government presented defensive gun-use research.
Lott expanded on that argument in a new Federalist op-ed. He credited the Trump administration with restoring the material and correcting part of the CDC’s original estimate.
The Numbers That Disappeared
The dispute reaches back to a 2013 National Academies report prepared with support from the CDC.
That report described defensive gun use as common, although the exact number remained hotly disputed. It said national survey estimates ranged from roughly 500,000 to more than 3 million defensive gun uses annually.
It also discussed a much lower estimate of 108,000. The report warned that this figure was difficult to interpret because respondents were not specifically asked about defensive gun use.
In other words, the report did not settle the debate. It demonstrated how dramatically the answer changes depending on the survey and methodology used.
The CDC previously summarized the range as 60,000 to 2.5 million defensive uses each year. That language disappeared from its website in 2022.
The Emails Raise Questions
The removal did not happen in a vacuum.
Emails obtained through a public-records request showed several gun-control advocates lobbying CDC officials over the numbers.
The correspondence also showed that the Biden White House and Sen. Dick Durbin’s office helped connect the advocates with agency officials. Durbin’s office said it was simply helping interested organizations reach a federal agency.
CDC researchers initially defended the website’s language. They noted that media and police reports capture only a fraction of defensive incidents, especially cases where someone displays a firearm without firing it.
After a private September 2021 meeting, however, the CDC agreed to revise the page. By May 2022, the numerical range was gone.
The emails also showed that some advocates objected because gun-rights supporters used the estimates against proposed firearm restrictions. That is the part Lott finds particularly troubling. Whether information helps or hurts legislation, he argues, should not determine whether a federal health agency publishes it.
The Numbers Return
The Trump administration restored the old 60,000-to-2.5-million range in July 2026. The CDC then changed the lower number to 500,000 in late September.
The CDC’s current page now says the National Academies report indicates between 500,000 and 2.5 million defensive gun uses annually. It also plainly acknowledges that estimates vary based on survey questions, populations and research methods.
One detail is worth clearing up. The current CDC range ends at 2.5 million, not more than 3 million. The National Academies report discussed survey estimates exceeding 3 million.
So, the CDC corrected the lower end of its range, but it did not reproduce the National Academies language exactly.
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Critics still dispute the larger estimates. They argue that surveys measuring relatively rare events can produce inflated numbers when researchers extrapolate from a small number of responses.
Supporters counter that crime surveys can miss defensive uses when no shot is fired, no police report is made or the respondent is never directly asked about firearms. That methodological fight is nowhere close to finished.
Lott’s Separate Fight With the FBI
Lott’s op-ed also revisits his argument that the FBI undercounts armed citizens who stop active shooters.
The FBI identified 16 armed-citizen interventions among 408 active-shooter incidents from 2014 through 2025. Lott says CPRC found 225 interventions among a broader list of 615 incidents.
Those figures come from a separate debate over classifications and missing cases. The CDC estimates cover defensive gun use generally. They do not specifically measure civilians stopping mass-casualty attacks.
Still, Lott sees both controversies as part of the same problem: federal agencies presenting incomplete information about armed self-defense.
The exact number of defensive gun uses remains unsettled. What is no longer seriously disputed is that political advocates pushed the CDC to remove the figures, and the agency eventually complied.
For gun owners, that may be the most important part of the story.
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is a seasoned outdoorsman, lifelong hunter, and the kind of guy who’d rather track whitetails than scroll social media. As an editor for GunsAmerica, he’s got a sharp eye for spotting both solid gear and bad gun laws. Whether he’s deep in the woods or deep in editorial deadlines, Larry brings a no-nonsense, tell-it-like-it-is approach to firearms, hunting, and the great American tradition of self-reliance. If there’s a hot debate on gun rights or the latest in hunting tech, you can bet Larry’s got an opinion—and it’s probably backed up with both facts and field experience.
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it don’t help when the media refuses to mention self defense in it’s news reporting! then there is the conviction rate rates from commie left strongholds that want to ban guns and railroad the law abiding thru the courts.