Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
The Crime Prevention Research Center just dropped a new report, and it’s already stirring debate.
Dr. John Lott and his team examined FBI active shooting data from 2018 through 2024. And they argue that much of the public conversation has been statistically incomplete.
The headline claim?
When you adjust for population share, transgender individuals appear disproportionately represented in active shooting and mass public shooting cases, particularly in 2024.
SEE ALSO: Trans Dad Opens Fire at Rhode Island Hockey Game
The Statistical Argument
Lott’s core critique targets prior reporting from outlets like Politifact, which focused on the percentage of attacks committed by transgender individuals without adjusting for how small a share of the population they represent.
According to the study:
- Estimates place transgender individuals between 0.5% and 1% of the U.S. population (CDC, Gallup, Census data).
- From 2018–2024, transgender individuals accounted for 2.5% of FBI-defined active shooting attacks.
- In 2024 alone, that number reportedly rose to 12% of active shooting cases.
On its face, 2.5% may sound small. But Lott argues the relevant metric is proportionality. If a group makes up roughly 0.7% of the population but accounts for 2.5% of attacks, that’s 3–4 times their population share. In 2024, the disparity appears far larger.
Using FBI data only:
- Over the full period: 3.4 times their population share (or 2.5 times using the 1% Census estimate).
- In 2024: 12 to 16 times their population share, depending on which population estimate is used.
The study also examines “mass public shootings” (four or more victims killed) and finds transgender individuals account for roughly 6.2 times their population share in that category over the 2018–2025 window.
MIT professor Alex Byrne essentially says that the transgender medical industrial complex is destroying children’s bodies and causing sterility over a psychological condition, gender dysmorphia.
— The Researcher (@listen_2learn) February 15, 2026
What they are doing to children ought to be criminal. pic.twitter.com/LTwdf0V5pa
The Definitions Matter
The FBI defines active shootings as incidents occurring in public that are not tied to other crimes like gang disputes or robberies. That narrower definition excludes many shootings often cited in broader “mass shooting” databases.
Lott’s team says they analyzed the data two ways:
- Using FBI active shooter reports only.
- Using an expanded dataset built under the same FBI criteria.
The results vary slightly depending on dataset. But the overall conclusion, according to CPRC, does not.
The Bigger Question
This is obviously sensitive terrain.
Critics will argue that small raw numbers can produce volatile percentage swings. Others will question classification methods, motives, and how identity is defined in each case. Supporters of the study will say the math is straightforward: proportional analysis matters.
🚨🚨 BREAKING: Brown University, Rhode Island mass shooter Benjamin Erickson, who goes by they/them pronouns, becomes the latest in a growing list of transgender individuals who have committed violent mass shootings in The United States. We need to start having an honest… pic.twitter.com/ZwBufvCZaR
— Joshua Hall (@JoshHall2024) December 15, 2025
SEE ALSO: Should Transgenders Have Their Firearms Confiscated?
What’s clear is this: raw percentages alone don’t tell the whole story. Population-adjusted rates can completely change the conversation.
For example, at first blush, it might not sound alarming if a town has “only” 10 burglaries. Until you find out the town has just 100 residents.
So what do we do with that?
- Is this an uncomfortable but necessary data discussion?
- Is it statistically overstated because the base numbers are small?
- Or is the real issue how media outlets frame (or avoid framing) demographic data in the first place?
The CPRC says the Excel file will be released for public review. And when it comes to claims this controversial, transparency is key.
Data doesn’t care about politics. But how we interpret it always does.
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Breaking news, mentally ill people are disproportionately responsible for crimes.
If transgender people make up nearly 1 percent of the adult population, I am shocked. I believe the figure is closer to one-tenth of one percent, which would change the ratio drastically. We don’t really need statistics. All we need to do is pay attention to the news reports, which overwhelmingly prove the connection between trans folks and slaughter against innocents. What we need to do as a society is study what makes these individuals go off-the-wall. Are they being treated for mental illness when they are obviously unbalanced? No! Why not? Because it is not PC? I think so. Why are not toxicology on the perps made public? Same reason. Not PC! Dems seem to love drugs. They seem to love slaughter with firearms because it may bring them a step closer to disarming us. They seem to love the perps and view victims with distain.
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You’re asking liberals to learn the significance and truth behind statistics? That’s like pushing water uphill…
You needed a Bombshell Report to tell you that???!?!!
yes the trans shooting numbers recently out number all other groups and it’s starting to be a problem, and they get no jail time, they seem to kill innocent people in numbers and not one or two, something needs to be done,
Just to be clear, “Trans,” can cover transvestites, transgender and transexual. The etymology of the word transvestites has Latin links to trans or cross over and vestments or clothing. There is no hormone treatment with strict transvestites, and the potential psychological dangers are not present when (GAHT) has not been introduced. The bizarre tendency for “comedians” like the lame skits on Monty Python often involved a goof dressed as a woman, not funny but not the same danger as when hormone treatment (GAHT) by the medical “experts” is involved.
Kane, Far Right ignorant people like yourself who seem always to panic and are obsessed with or over the existence of such people who are Trans shows deep seated Psychological doubts about your own masculinity which often leads to discrimination, hostility and or even violence against people who are different than yourself. You isolate yourself in your own little bubble devoid of any contact with anyone different than yourself due to a terror of the unknown due to your ignorance about the subject and lack of contact with such people. You view them as a threat just as you view all minorities, both ethnic and religious such as Blacks or Latinos or Asians or Muslims or Hindus or Buddhists, or Refugees, or Immigrants. The list is endless for the Far Right who “arm up” and sleep on crates of ammunition, frightened and terrified of all whom are different than themselves. You are on the lower rung of humanity and I am being very generous with that statement.
so who’s calling the kettle black here, your very comments towards people who don’t agree with you are racist.
The mutilation of children to appease a psychological disorder is what the Trans issue is about. Adults who choose to change their plumbing can do so at their own expense.
The rest of your tirade is just deep seated ignorance that can be cured by education. However a closed mind cannot learn.
quote——————The mutilation of children to appease a psychological disorder————-quote
Your statement shows you know zero about Trans people and about the medical science we already know about it, It’s the same old Far Right nonsense about a subject they know zero about.
You don’t believe the removal of sex organs is mutilation? Do you support the Islamic practice of removing part of a woman’s body because that wouldn’t be mutilation?
It is not far right to be against mutilation of children. That would be a sane stance, not political.
dacian wants to be recognized as the undisputed tranny expert and it makes sense because all his opinions are probably based on personal experiences.
dacian is immune to any logic.
dacian ignores the 12 mass murderers which is the topic of the article and tosses around lame lies. dacian does not care about the potential dangers of GAHT and trusts blindly in this Big Pharma money making schemes. Big pharma and dacian have such sullied reputations.
:^I
Lott has been condemned and debunked by every Statistician who has studied his outlandish and deliberately slanted conclusions.
The problem with John lot is that he is dishonest.
He uses fraudulent accounts to post bogus reviews in support of his so-called ‘scholarly reports’.
He’s the George Santos/Anthony Delawder of gun research.
“Scholar Invents Fan To Answer His Critics
By Richard Morin
February 1, 2003
Mary Rosh thinks the world of John R. Lott Jr., the controversial American Enterprise Institute scholar whose book “More Guns, Less Crime” caused such a stir a few years ago.
In postings on Web sites in this country and abroad, Rosh has tirelessly defended Lott against his harshest critics. He is a meticulous researcher, she’s repeatedly told those who say otherwise. He’s not driven by the ideology of the left or the right. Rosh has even summoned memories of the classes she took from Lott a decade ago to illustrate Lott’s probity and academic gifts.
“I have to say that he was the best professor I ever had,” Rosh gushed in one Internet posting.
Indeed, Mary Rosh and John Lott agree about nearly everything.
Well they should, because Mary Rosh is John Lott — or at least that’s the pseudonym he’s used for three years to defend himself against his critics in online debates, Lott acknowledged this week.
“I probably shouldn’t have done it — I know I shouldn’t have done it — but it’s hard to think of any big advantage I got except to be able to comment fictitiously,” said Lott, an economist who has held senior research positions at the University of Chicago and Yale.
Moreover, the AEI resident scholar acknowledged on Friday that he permitted his 13-year-old son to write an effusive review of “More Guns, Less Crime” and then post it on the Amazon.com Web site. It was signed “Maryrosh.”
Lott said that he frequently has used the name “Mary Rosh” to defend himself in online debates. The name is an amalgam of the first two letters of his four sons’ first names. In a posting to the Web site maintained by Tim Lambert, an Australian professor who has relentlessly attacked Lott’s guns studies, “Mary Rosh” claims to be a former student of Lott at the University of Pennsylvania, where the economist taught between 1991 and 1995.“
When a reporter attempted to read the posting to him over the telephone, Lott stopped him after the first few words. “I’m sure I did that. I shouldn’t have done it.”
Julian Sanchez, a Cato Institute staffer, is the cybersleuth who tracked Mary Rosh back to John Lott.
“I compared that IP with the header of an email Dr. Lott had sent me from his home address. And by yet another astonishing coincidence, it had originated at the very same IP address. Now, what are the odds of that?” he wrote in a posting on his Web site. “Sarcasm aside, we’re a little old to be playing dress up, aren’t we Dr. Lott?”
Lott said he initially used his own name in online debates with critics. “But you just get into really emotional things with people. You also run into other problems.” So he started using the name Mary Rosh. “I should not have done it, there is no doubt. But it was a way to get information into the debate.”
The Far Right are no different than that of the German Nazi’s who sent Transexuals and Gays to gas chambers and make no mistake about it the Far Right in the U.S. are just lusting to do the same.
The Far Right have also stated that it is only “They” who should have Second Amendment Rights”, not Liberals, not Gays, not Transexuals, not ethnic minorities or even religious minorities. Sound familiar? Hitler did the same by out lawing the Jewish people from owning firearms but then actually relaxed gun laws for the White German People.
What did he get wrong in his analysis? Directly, not some attack on him but in what he presented.
Lott used a pen name, or nom de plume in a questionable manner. Personally, I do not care that he was using a fictitious personality while also maintaining his own real personality and trying to obtain an advantage based on this deception. Lott undermined some people’s trust, but you are correct though, there was no real proof his analysis was faulty based on his tactics.
Still the quote by dacian was almost amusing since he is a serial liar.
“The problem with John lot is that he is dishonest.” -dacian
correction:
Lott used a pen name, or nom de plume in a questionable manner. Personally, I do not care HOW he was using a fictitious personality while also maintaining his own real personality and trying to obtain an advantage based on this deception. Lott undermined some people’s trust, but you are correct though, there was no real proof his analysis was faulty based on his tactics.
odd how they seem to overlook that fact……