Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
The Crime Prevention Research Center just dropped a new report, and it’s already stirring debate.
Dr. John Lott and his team examined FBI active shooting data from 2018 through 2024. And they argue that much of the public conversation has been statistically incomplete.
The headline claim?
When you adjust for population share, transgender individuals appear disproportionately represented in active shooting and mass public shooting cases, particularly in 2024.
SEE ALSO: Trans Dad Opens Fire at Rhode Island Hockey Game
The Statistical Argument
Lott’s core critique targets prior reporting from outlets like Politifact, which focused on the percentage of attacks committed by transgender individuals without adjusting for how small a share of the population they represent.
According to the study:
- Estimates place transgender individuals between 0.5% and 1% of the U.S. population (CDC, Gallup, Census data).
- From 2018–2024, transgender individuals accounted for 2.5% of FBI-defined active shooting attacks.
- In 2024 alone, that number reportedly rose to 12% of active shooting cases.
On its face, 2.5% may sound small. But Lott argues the relevant metric is proportionality. If a group makes up roughly 0.7% of the population but accounts for 2.5% of attacks, that’s 3–4 times their population share. In 2024, the disparity appears far larger.
Using FBI data only:
- Over the full period: 3.4 times their population share (or 2.5 times using the 1% Census estimate).
- In 2024: 12 to 16 times their population share, depending on which population estimate is used.
The study also examines “mass public shootings” (four or more victims killed) and finds transgender individuals account for roughly 6.2 times their population share in that category over the 2018–2025 window.
MIT professor Alex Byrne essentially says that the transgender medical industrial complex is destroying children’s bodies and causing sterility over a psychological condition, gender dysmorphia.
— The Researcher (@listen_2learn) February 15, 2026
What they are doing to children ought to be criminal. pic.twitter.com/LTwdf0V5pa
The Definitions Matter
The FBI defines active shootings as incidents occurring in public that are not tied to other crimes like gang disputes or robberies. That narrower definition excludes many shootings often cited in broader “mass shooting” databases.
Lott’s team says they analyzed the data two ways:
- Using FBI active shooter reports only.
- Using an expanded dataset built under the same FBI criteria.
The results vary slightly depending on dataset. But the overall conclusion, according to CPRC, does not.
The Bigger Question
This is obviously sensitive terrain.
Critics will argue that small raw numbers can produce volatile percentage swings. Others will question classification methods, motives, and how identity is defined in each case. Supporters of the study will say the math is straightforward: proportional analysis matters.
🚨🚨 BREAKING: Brown University, Rhode Island mass shooter Benjamin Erickson, who goes by they/them pronouns, becomes the latest in a growing list of transgender individuals who have committed violent mass shootings in The United States. We need to start having an honest… pic.twitter.com/ZwBufvCZaR
— Joshua Hall (@JoshHall2024) December 15, 2025
SEE ALSO: Should Transgenders Have Their Firearms Confiscated?
What’s clear is this: raw percentages alone don’t tell the whole story. Population-adjusted rates can completely change the conversation.
For example, at first blush, it might not sound alarming if a town has “only” 10 burglaries. Until you find out the town has just 100 residents.
So what do we do with that?
- Is this an uncomfortable but necessary data discussion?
- Is it statistically overstated because the base numbers are small?
- Or is the real issue how media outlets frame (or avoid framing) demographic data in the first place?
The CPRC says the Excel file will be released for public review. And when it comes to claims this controversial, transparency is key.
Data doesn’t care about politics. But how we interpret it always does.
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is a seasoned outdoorsman, lifelong hunter, and the kind of guy who’d rather track whitetails than scroll social media. As an editor for GunsAmerica, he’s got a sharp eye for spotting both solid gear and bad gun laws. Whether he’s deep in the woods or deep in editorial deadlines, Larry brings a no-nonsense, tell-it-like-it-is approach to firearms, hunting, and the great American tradition of self-reliance. If there’s a hot debate on gun rights or the latest in hunting tech, you can bet Larry’s got an opinion—and it’s probably backed up with both facts and field experience.
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