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The U.S. Supreme Court will soon hear arguments over whether governments may ban AR-15s and similar semiautomatic rifles. But new data raises an obvious question: What problem are these bans actually solving?
According to a new Crime Prevention Research Center analysis of FBI Uniform Crime Reporting data, rifles account for a remarkably small (and declining) share of firearm murders.
Before the federal “assault weapons” ban took effect in September 1994, rifles accounted for 4.8% of firearm murders. During the 1995–2004 ban period, the number was 4.9%.
In other words, the ban barely moved the needle. It was like flipping a light switch that wasn’t connected to anything.
After the ban expired, the rifle share dropped to 3.6%. Looking only at the first 10 years following its expiration, it was 3.86%.
Put another way, imagine lining up 100 firearm murders. Fewer than four would involve any kind of rifle, not just an AR-15 or AK-style firearm, but every type of rifle combined.
That broader category matters because the FBI figures do not isolate AR-15s. Those rifles represent only some portion of an already small total.
Here is where the numbers become even more interesting.
CPRC estimates that the number of AR-15s and AK-style rifles increased from approximately one per 100 Americans in 2004 to 10.2 per 100 in 2025. That is a tenfold increase in ownership, yet rifles’ share of firearm murders went down.
If the mere availability of these firearms drove murder, we would expect both lines to climb together. Instead, one shot upward while the other fell.
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That does not prove growing AR-15 ownership caused the decline. But it certainly makes it difficult to argue that adding millions of these rifles to civilian hands produced a corresponding increase in murder.
The Supreme Court will hear the consolidated cases of Viramontes v. Cook County and Grant v. Higgins on Dec. 2. The official question is whether the Second and Fourteenth Amendments protect the right to possess AR-15-platform and similar semiautomatic rifles.
Statistics will not decide the constitutional question by themselves. Rights do not disappear simply because a government claims its restrictions might improve public safety.
Still, if politicians want to justify banning one of America’s most popular rifles, they should at least explain why their preferred target occupies such a tiny, and shrinking, slice of the murder problem.
What exactly are these rifle bans supposed to accomplish?
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is a seasoned outdoorsman, lifelong hunter, and the kind of guy who’d rather track whitetails than scroll social media. As an editor for GunsAmerica, he’s got a sharp eye for spotting both solid gear and bad gun laws. Whether he’s deep in the woods or deep in editorial deadlines, Larry brings a no-nonsense, tell-it-like-it-is approach to firearms, hunting, and the great American tradition of self-reliance. If there’s a hot debate on gun rights or the latest in hunting tech, you can bet Larry’s got an opinion—and it’s probably backed up with both facts and field experience.
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