(Photo: NRA-ILA)
May was another record-breaking month for background checks, according to a report posted by the Federal Bureau of Investigation earlier this month.
The agency’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) processed 2,002,992 queries in May 2018, approximately three percent more than the all-time May record of 1,942,677 checks set last year. This continues the streak as March 2018 and April 2018 were also record-setting.
The FBI’s raw numbers on background checks. As they say on the report, NICS numbers are not a one-to-one correlation to gun sales.
The question, of course, is how those NICS numbers translate to actual gun sales. As many of you know, NICS numbers aren’t a one-for-one correlation to guns sold because the NICS system is also used to run background checks on concealed carry permit applicants.
To get a more accurate reading one has to turn to the National Shooting Sports Foundation which attempts to isolate on those queries related to gun sales, what they call the “adjusted NICS” figures. According to the NSSF’s calculation, there were 904,834 background checks in May of 2018. That figure is actually an 8.5 percent decrease from May 2017, which had an adjusted total of 988,473. Still, the NSSF cautions that even the adjusted figures aren’t perfect.
The adjusted May background check numbers from 2000 to 2018, per the NSSF. (Photo: NSSF)
In talking with mom-and-pop gun stores from around the country, it appears that there is an uptick in sales. Especially, in the wake of the February shooting in Parkland, Florida.
“We have seen a spike in sales from February through May,” said Philip McCulloch, the owner of Sgt. Mac’s Gun Shack in Galveston, Texas. “Americans are feeling they need to purchase a firearm in order to protect themselves. People also purchase items every time there is talk of banning firearms.”
Certainly, there has been no shortage of anti-gun activists, politicians, and celebrities calling to ban guns over the last several months. The worst part is that maybe it’s working. A Harvard poll conducted in March found that 58 percent of voters under 30 support a ban on so-called “assault weapons.” Five years ago, after Sandy Hook, support for a black rifle ban amongst that same demographic was at 41 percent.
Philip observed another trend at his store. That sales of certain accessories also increased recently.
“After the Santa Fe shooting we sold a large number of backpack plates and armor,” Philip told GunsAmerica. “Santa Fe is 30 min away from our shop,” he added.
Fear of mass shootings is real, even though they are extremely rare events and aren’t more common today than they were years ago. Despite what the mainstream media reports. All this fear buying, whether it’s from gun bans or from mass killers, does have it’s effect on the gun market, as John Robertson owner of Robertson’s Trading Post in Henderson, TN, told GunsAmerica.
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“December 2012 until mid-2013 was the strongest spike I’ve ever seen. It blew the doors off pretty much for everybody in this business who had any product to sell,” explained John. “Then, by mid-2014, a tremendous hangover set it. The hangover was interrupted mildly during the 2016 Election Cycle, and the shooting in Miami, but only mildly. After the 2016 Election, the hangover pretty much doubled itself. Pricing declined as much as 20% off of normal wholesale pricing, sometimes even more.”
Last 12 months of adjusted-NICS data. (Photo: NSSF)
Robertson said that 2017 may have been a stellar year for sales but it wasn’t a stellar year for dealers. The deep discounts and price cutting to move product took a toll.
John said, “We’ve sold a good many brand new Sig Sauer pistols this past year for $589 that wholesaled for well over $700 in 2016. We’re still sitting on some brand new Smith & Wesson M&P 9mm pistols we’re trying to sell for $359, when wholesale pricing has been $425 for several years.”
Unlike other jewelry stores and soft drink makers that have huge profit margins, guns and have an average markup of less than 20 percent, noted John. In other words, just because guns may be moving off the shelves doesn’t mean that dealers are raking in the dough.
The good news for buyers, though, is there are plenty of deals to be had. Really, when you think about it, as consumers we’ve never had a larger selection of affordable and reliable firearms at our fingertips. Given the political realities post-Parkland and the ever-increasing momentum of the gun-ban movement, maybe we won’t ever again. My advice: buy, buy, buy!