{"id":260150,"date":"2026-11-05T15:05:03","date_gmt":"2026-11-05T21:05:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/?p=260150"},"modified":"2026-11-05T15:05:09","modified_gmt":"2026-11-05T21:05:09","slug":"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\/","title":{"rendered":"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-estimated-reading-time yoast-reading-time__wrapper\"><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__icon\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-icon=\"clock\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" style=\"display:inline-block;vertical-align:-0.1em\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\" d=\"M12 8v4l3 3m6-3a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__spacer\" style=\"display:inline-block;width:1em\"><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__descriptive-text\">Estimated reading time: <\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__reading-time\">5<\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__time-unit\"> minutes<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 id=\"h-\" class=\"wp-block-heading\"><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Washington Gun Law President William Kirk is not sugarcoating his reaction to the midterms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cThat was a disaster,\u201d Kirk said after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress. But rather than conducting another broad election autopsy, Kirk focused on one immediate <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/midterm-election-house-senate-democrats-republicans-trump-f126e12e05b579a327b98481c0ae2226\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\">question<\/a> for gun owners: Could the election results unravel the recent victories involving suppressors, short-barreled rifles and other National Firearms Act items? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">His short answer is yes.  But there are some important hurdles between Democratic control of Congress and the return of the old NFA system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><h2>Table of contents<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"#h-how-we-got-here\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\" data-level=\"2\">How We Got Here<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-the-one-dollar-problem\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\" data-level=\"2\">The One-Dollar Problem<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-trump-still-has-the-veto-pen\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\" data-level=\"2\">Trump Still Has the Veto Pen<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-kirk-s-timeline-needs-some-context\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\" data-level=\"2\">Kirk\u2019s Timeline Needs Some Context<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-should-gun-owners-stock-up\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\" data-level=\"2\">Should Gun Owners \u201cStock Up\u201d?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-how-we-got-here\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">How We Got Here<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Congress reduced the NFA making and transfer taxes to $0 for suppressors, short-barreled rifles, short-barreled shotguns and \u201cany other weapons.\u201d Machine guns and destructive devices remained subject to the $200 tax.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That change eventually produced a major court victory in <em>Silencer Shop Foundation v. ATF<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In August, a federal judge ruled that the NFA\u2019s registration and approval requirements could no longer stand as an exercise of Congress\u2019s taxing power when the covered items produced no tax revenue. The court\u2019s injunction formally protected only the plaintiffs, but the Justice Department <a href=\"https:\/\/www.govinfo.gov\/content\/pkg\/USCOURTS-txnd-6_25-cv-00056\/pdf\/USCOURTS-txnd-6_25-cv-00056-0.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\">declined<\/a> to appeal and ATF adopted a nationwide nonenforcement policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Under <a href=\"https:\/\/www.atf.gov\/firearms\/update-to-nfa-transfer-guidance?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\">ATF\u2019s October 9 guidance<\/a>, the agency stopped enforcing the NFA\u2019s approval, registration and tax-stamp requirements for those untaxed items. Gun Control Act requirements, state restrictions and several other federal rules remain in place.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That is the honeymoon Kirk is worried about losing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-the-one-dollar-problem\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">The One-Dollar Problem<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kirk\u2019s central point is simple: \u201cThat which could be done through budget reconciliation could also be undone through budget reconciliation.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Republicans used reconciliation to reduce the taxes to $0. With Democrats controlling the House and Senate, they could attempt to use the same process to restore them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Reconciliation matters because qualifying budget legislation cannot be filibustered in the Senate and can pass with a simple majority. It must, however, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.budget.senate.gov\/chairman\/budget-points-of-order\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\">comply<\/a> with rules limiting the process to provisions that meaningfully affect federal spending or revenue. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kirk argues that Congress would not necessarily need to restore the old $200 tax. Even a $1 tax would once again produce revenue, potentially removing the foundation supporting the <em>Silencer Shop<\/em> decision.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>SEE ALSO: <a href=\"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/hunt365-7-creedmoor-takes-2nd-in-nrl-hunter\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\">7 Creedmoor Takes 2nd in NRL Hunter<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That does not mean every registration requirement would automatically spring back to life overnight. It would mean the government could argue that the NFA is once again a revenue-producing tax law and seek to revive enforcement. More litigation would almost certainly follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But Kirk\u2019s larger point is valid: the current arrangement rests partly on a tax rate that Congress can change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-trump-still-has-the-veto-pen\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trump Still Has the Veto Pen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The election gave Democrats control of Congress, but it did not give them complete control of the federal government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">President Donald Trump can veto a reconciliation bill containing an NFA tax increase. Based on the incoming congressional numbers, Democrats would not appear to have the two-thirds majorities needed to override that veto.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The risk, according to Kirk, is that lawmakers could bury a small NFA tax inside a much larger reconciliation package containing provisions the administration wants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A president cannot simply cross out the NFA section and approve everything else. The Supreme Court struck down the federal line-item veto in <em>Clinton v. City of New York<\/em>, holding that the president must accept or reject the legislation Congress actually passed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That could leave Trump with an all-or-nothing decision: sign a massive budget package containing a small NFA tax or veto the entire bill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, that is political leverage\u2014not a guaranteed Democratic victory. The White House could draw a hard line, and congressional Republicans could make the NFA provision politically toxic long before the legislation reaches the president.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-kirk-s-timeline-needs-some-context\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Kirk\u2019s Timeline Needs Some Context<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kirk points to the federal budget calendar as the period gun owners should watch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Federal law generally requires the president to submit a budget between the first Monday in January and the first Monday in February. The statutory <a href=\"https:\/\/uscode.house.gov\/us\/usc\/119-118\/t31\/s1105\/?utm_source=chatgpt.com\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\">timetable<\/a> then targets April 15 for completion of a congressional budget resolution and June 15 for reconciliation legislation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those are targets, not reliable deadlines. Congress regularly misses them, and reconciliation can stretch well beyond June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The real danger signal would be a budget resolution containing reconciliation instructions related to NFA taxes or firearm regulation. Until actual text appears, everything else remains speculation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 id=\"h-should-gun-owners-stock-up\" class=\"wp-block-heading\">Should Gun Owners \u201cStock Up\u201d?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kirk\u2019s practical advice is that anyone already considering a suppressor, SBR or another affected item may want to act during the next several months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That does not mean current owners should expect federal agents at their doors if Congress changes the law. Kirk believes the government would likely offer a registration or amnesty period if enforcement returned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u201cLikely\u201d is doing important work there. No grace period has been promised, and defenses such as entrapment by estoppel depend heavily on the government\u2019s statements and the individual facts of a prosecution. Gun owners should not treat either as an automatic shield.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The brass-tacks takeaway is that the NFA victory remains in place today, but it is less permanent than some supporters initially suggested. Democrats now have a procedural path to attempt restoring the tax. Trump has the power to stop them, unless the tax becomes a bargaining chip inside a much larger bill he is willing to sign.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">So, did the midterms end the NFA honeymoon? Not yet. But Kirk is probably right that gun owners need to start watching the budget process as closely as they watch the courts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Would you purchase an NFA item now, or trust the presidential veto to preserve the current system?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\" style=\"font-size:24px\"><strong><em>*** <a href=\"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"did-the-midterms-just-end-the-nfa-honeymoon\" title=\"Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Buy and Sell on GunsAmerica!<\/a> ***<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Could the election results unravel the recent victories involving suppressors, short-barreled rifles and other National Firearms Act items? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":158,"featured_media":260165,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_specdata_upc":"","_specdata_placement":"manual","footnotes":""},"categories":[4024],"tags":[132,607,122],"featured":[],"hunt365":[],"class_list":["post-260150","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news","tag-buzz","tag-news","tag-r2kba"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.8 (Yoast SEO v28.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Did the Midterms Just End the NFA Honeymoon?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"William Kirk explains how the 2026 midterms could let Democrats use budget reconciliation to restore NFA taxes and threaten gun-rights gains.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link 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