{"id":227915,"date":"2026-01-07T03:25:00","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T09:25:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/?p=227915"},"modified":"2026-01-07T15:36:32","modified_gmt":"2026-01-07T21:36:32","slug":"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\/","title":{"rendered":"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\"><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>By Larry Keane<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\"><em>As Gun Ownership Surges, Murder Rates Fall<\/em><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Since COVID-era uncertainty began, millions of Americans bought firearms, many for the first time. Critics insisted that more guns in private hands would inevitably mean more violent crime and more criminal misuse of firearms \u2014 a national slide into a modern \u201cWild West.\u201d The most recent national and city-level data don\u2019t support that claim. Even as lawful gun ownership expanded dramatically, violent crime, homicide and several firearm-involved crimes have trended downward in recent years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not a claim that guns \u201ccause\u201d crime to fall. Crime is driven by offender behavior, enforcement, prosecution and local conditions. But it is a direct rebuttal to the overly simplistic gun control talking point that increases in lawful gun ownership will absolutely increase murder and firearm violence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"End-of-year crime data released for DC\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SzEklCmB_5I?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><h2>Table of contents<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"#h-as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\" data-level=\"2\">As Gun Ownership Surges, Murder Rates Fall<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-record-increase-in-lawful-ownership-since-covid\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\" data-level=\"2\">Record Increase in Lawful Ownership Since COVID<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-what-the-fbi-reports-for-2024\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\" data-level=\"2\">What the FBI Reports for 2024<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-the-pandemic-spike-was-real-and-it-didn-t-become-a-new-normal\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\" data-level=\"2\">The Pandemic Spike Was Real \u2014 and It Didn\u2019t Become a \u2018New Normal\u2019<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-city-level-data-tell-the-same-story\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\" data-level=\"2\">City-Level Data Tell the Same Story<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-bruen-nbsp-and-the-crime-wave-that-never-materialized\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\" data-level=\"2\">Bruen\u00a0 and the Crime Wave That Never Materialized<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-what-policymakers-should-learn\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\" data-level=\"2\">What Policymakers Should Learn<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-record-increase-in-lawful-ownership-since-covid\">Record Increase in Lawful Ownership Since COVID<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The United States added tens of millions of first-time gun owners since 2020. NSSF estimates about&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nssf.org\/articles\/update-make-that-26-million-new-first-time-gun-owners-since-2020\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">26.2 million<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;Americans bought their first firearm between 2020 through the end of 2024, including an estimated 8.4 million first-time buyers in 2020 alone. NSSF-adjusted verification background checks tied to retail sales suggest Americans purchased roughly 21.1 million firearms in 2020 and about 14.6 million in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>NSSF reports those adjusted checks remained above one million per month for years, totaling roughly 86 million since July 2019. At the same time, the FBI\u2019s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) operations reporting shows 2020 produced 39,695,315 unadjusted NICS background checks, the highest year in the history of the system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If \u201cmore guns equals more murders\u201d were a dependable rule, this is the period when the trend should be unmistakable and persistent. Except it isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-the-fbi-reports-for-2024\">What the FBI Reports for 2024<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The FBI\u2019s nationwide estimates show broad declines. In its 2024 summary report, the FBI estimates violent crime fell 4.5 percent from 2023 to 2024, and murder and nonnegligent manslaughter fell 14.9 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For a debate often framed around \u201cgun violence,\u201d the criminal misuse of firearms trends matter. The FBI reports aggravated assaults involving a firearm decreased 8.6 percent from 2023 to 2024, dropping from 289,938 reported offenses to 264,988. The estimated murder rate shown in the FBI report fell to 5.0 per 100,000 people in 2024, down from 5.9 in 2023 and below the pandemic-era peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-pandemic-spike-was-real-and-it-didn-t-become-a-new-normal\">The Pandemic Spike Was Real \u2014 and It Didn\u2019t Become a \u2018New Normal\u2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Homicides rose sharply during the early pandemic period, and the data should be acknowledged honestly. The FBI reported murder and nonnegligent manslaughter increased 29.4 percent from 2019 to 2020. But the claim at issue is not whether violence spiked in 2020, it is whether rising lawful gun ownership necessarily drives murders upward over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent firearm-homicide trends squash that assumption. Pew Research Center\u2019s analysis of&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2025\/03\/05\/what-the-data-says-about-gun-deaths-in-the-us\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">CDC mortality data<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;reports gun murders fell from a record 20,958 in 2021 to 17,927 in 2023, and the gun murder rate declined from 6.7 per 100,000 people in 2021 to 5.6 in 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In plain terms, the U.S. experienced an enormous increase in lawful gun ownership after 2020, yet firearm homicide has moved down significantly from its pandemic peak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-city-level-data-tell-the-same-story\">City-Level Data Tell the Same Story<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>City reporting also points to a downward trend in lethal violence. The Council on Criminal Justice\u2019s&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/counciloncj.org\/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-year-end-2024-update\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">Year-End 2024 update<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;found homicides in its study cities were 16 percent lower in 2024 than in 2023, representing 631 fewer homicides. The same report recorded 15 percent fewer \u201cgun assaults\u201d in 2024 than in 2023, alongside declines in robbery and other offenses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>More current, real-time indicators suggest 2025 continued that progress. Crime analyst Jeff Asher,&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.breitbart.com\/news\/united-states-set-for-record-murder-decline\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">using Real Time Crime Index data<\/a><\/strong>, said murders fell nearly 20 percent nationwide from 2024 to 2025, after a 13 percent decline the previous year. The same analysis cited broad declines in robberies, property crime and aggravated assaults, and reported Chicago saw about 30 percent fewer homicides than in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When multiple independent sources show multi-year, double-digit homicide declines across many jurisdictions, the idea that lawful gun ownership necessarily drives the country toward higher murder rates becomes hard to defend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-bruen-nbsp-and-the-crime-wave-that-never-materialized\"><em>Bruen&nbsp;<\/em>and the Crime Wave That Never Materialized<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>After the U.S. Supreme Court\u2019s 2022<em>&nbsp;Bruen<\/em>&nbsp;decision,&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.everytown.org\/press\/everytown-responds-to-decision-in-nysrpa-v-bruen\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">gun-control advocates<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.ca.gov\/2022\/06\/23\/governor-newsom-responds-to-supreme-court-decision-on-concealed-carry\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">politicians<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;warned that expanding lawful carry would trigger more shootings and murders. Yet, using&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ammoland.com\/2025\/12\/what-happened-to-the-homicide-rate-after-the-supreme-courts-bruen-decision\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">Real Time Crime Index<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;tools, the 12-month running average of violent crime fell 14 percent from June 2022 through October 2025, while murders fell 39 percent over the same period. That analysis also notes the index draws from a sample of 570 agencies and reports its proportional mix tracks within about 2 percent of FBI UCR proportions. Although some states tried to circumvent the imagined future effects of the&nbsp;<em>Bruen<\/em>&nbsp;decision,&nbsp;a federal appellate court recently&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/law.justia.com\/cases\/federal\/appellate-courts\/ca9\/24-565\/24-565-2026-01-02.html\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">struck down California\u2019s ban on openly carrying firearms<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;in most parts of the state, ruling California\u2019s restrictions on open carry in counties with more than 200,000 residents\u2014covering about 95 percent of the state\u2019s population\u2014ran afoul of the&nbsp;<em>Bruen<\/em>&nbsp;decision. In response, Gov. Gavin Newsom&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.desertsun.com\/story\/news\/nation\/california\/2026\/01\/03\/california-open-carry-ban-overturned-ninth-circuit\/88006233007\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">predictably blasted<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;the decision as \u201creckless\u201d and warned it could \u201creturn California to the days of the Wild West.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s not to say this single court decision \u201ccaused\u201d crime to fall, just that the predicted surge in murders did not occur, even as lawful carry expanded. What was pitched as a return to \u201cWild West\u201d justice in America turned out to be nothing more than a peaceful prairie, complete with homesteaders armed to defend themselves if necessary.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-what-policymakers-should-learn\">What Policymakers Should Learn<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>With experts touting one of the&nbsp;<strong><a href=\"https:\/\/abcnews.go.com\/US\/us-poised-end-2025-largest-year-drop-homicides\/story?id=128646976\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\">largest one-year drops in homicides ever<\/a><\/strong>&nbsp;recorded in 2025, its clear: America can see increases in lawful gun ownership without automatically seeing increases in violent crime or firearm murders. This fact should shape the policy debate more than a premature assumption of law-abiding gun owners\u2019 future actions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the objective is fewer criminal shootings and fewer homicides, the most effective levers are the ones tied to criminal behavior: identifying repeat violent offenders, disrupting illegal gun trafficking, prosecuting prohibited possessors and restoring the certainty that serious violence brings serious consequences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The predictable \u201cWild West\u201d blood-in-the-streets claim may be rhetorically useful for gun control advocates to advance their antigun political agenda, but it isn\u2019t supported by the current crime data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Larry Keane\u00a0<\/strong><em>is Senior Vice President of Government and Public Affairs and General Counsel for the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nssf.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">National Shooting Sports Foundation<\/a>, the firearms industry trade association.<\/em><br \/><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\" style=\"font-size:24px\"><strong><em>*** <a href=\"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"as-gun-ownership-surges-murder-rates-fall\" title=\"Post-COVID Crime Data Debunks Gun Control\u2019s \u2018Wild West\u2019 Narrative\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Buy and Sell on GunsAmerica!<\/a> ***<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>If \u201cmore guns equals more murders\u201d were a dependable rule, this is the period when the trend should be unmistakable and persistent. Except it isn\u2019t.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":115,"featured_media":227255,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_specdata_upc":"","_specdata_placement":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4024],"tags":[132,607,311],"featured":[],"hunt365":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-227915","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-buzz","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-nssf"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.3 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>As Gun Ownership Surges, Murder Rates Fall<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Crime data clearly show that post-Covid gun purchases did not at all increase violence in America. 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