{"id":222203,"date":"2025-10-07T14:39:46","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T19:39:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/?p=222203"},"modified":"2025-10-07T14:39:53","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T19:39:53","slug":"lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-estimated-reading-time yoast-reading-time__wrapper\"><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__icon\"><svg aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" data-icon=\"clock\" width=\"20\" height=\"20\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" style=\"display:inline-block;vertical-align:-0.1em\" role=\"img\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\"><path stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\" d=\"M12 8v4l3 3m6-3a9 9 0 11-18 0 9 9 0 0118 0z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__spacer\" style=\"display:inline-block;width:1em\"><\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__descriptive-text\">Estimated reading time: <\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__reading-time\">3<\/span><span class=\"yoast-reading-time__time-unit\"> minutes<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\"><\/h1>\n\n\n\n<p>You can\u2019t fix what you don\u2019t understand \u2014 and when it comes to crime, the public\u2019s been fed a steady diet of half-truths and cooked stats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s what Dr. John Lott, founder of the Crime Prevention Research Center, unpacked on <em>Politics By Faith<\/em> with Mike Slater, cutting straight through the noise about America\u2019s so-called \u201ccrime decline.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"On Politics By Faith w\/Mike Slater: Discussing the Crime Crisis\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/4mprmJN9JWY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-yoast-seo-table-of-contents yoast-table-of-contents\"><h2>Table of contents<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"#h-redefining-crime-reducing-accountability\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\" title=\"Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis\" data-level=\"2\">Redefining Crime, Reducing Accountability<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-the-real-numbers-the-media-won-t-touch\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\" title=\"Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis\" data-level=\"2\">The Real Numbers the Media Won\u2019t Touch<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-when-deterrence-dies-criminals-thrive\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\" title=\"Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis\" data-level=\"2\">When Deterrence Dies, Criminals Thrive<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#h-the-bottom-line\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\" title=\"Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis\" data-level=\"2\">The Bottom Line<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-redefining-crime-reducing-accountability\"><strong>Redefining Crime, Reducing Accountability<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Lott explained how cities like Manhattan, Chicago, and Philadelphia are playing word games with the data \u2014 downgrading violent felonies into misdemeanors so the FBI numbers look cleaner than the streets actually are.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He gave the perfect example: an <em>aggravated assault<\/em> (a felony) can become a <em>simple assault<\/em> (a misdemeanor) the second prosecutors decide not to charge for weapon involvement. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhen prosecutors refuse to take firearms cases and pressure police not to record weapons used, the data starts lying,\u201d Lott said. \u201cCrimes don\u2019t disappear \u2014 they just vanish from the spreadsheets.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-real-numbers-the-media-won-t-touch\"><strong>The Real Numbers the Media Won\u2019t Touch<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Lott, only 40% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes are reported to police \u2014 and that\u2019s <em>shrinking<\/em> fast because people no longer believe justice will be served.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When only 20% of reported violent crimes in big cities result in an arrest \u2014 and just 8% if you count all violent crimes \u2014 people stop calling the cops. That\u2019s how you get headlines claiming \u201ccrime is down,\u201d when what\u2019s really dropping is public trust.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SEE ALSO: <a href=\"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/7-creedmoor-the-new-6-5\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\" title=\"Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis\">Is 7 Creedmoor the new 6.5?<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even worse, the Bureau of Justice Statistics shows a 55% surge in violent crime during the first three years of the Biden administration \u2014 the biggest three-year jump since federal tracking began. The previous record? A 27% rise back in 2006. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cSo when <em>NPR<\/em> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2025\/06\/30\/nx-s1-5448852\/murders-down-nationwide-covid\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\" title=\"Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis\">runs<\/a> with \u2018violent crime is falling,\u2019 they\u2019re just parroting the wrong dataset,\u201d Lott said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-when-deterrence-dies-criminals-thrive\"><strong>When Deterrence Dies, Criminals Thrive<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Lott broke it down like an economist: \u201cIf you make something riskier for criminals, they\u2019ll do less of it.\u201d Raise arrest rates. Enforce convictions. Keep repeat offenders off the street.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He pointed to cases like a South Carolina man arrested 39 times \u2014 25 for violent felonies \u2014 who still managed to walk free long enough to kill again. Or the Charlotte train stabbing, where a repeat offender released early for \u201cracial equity\u201d murdered a 21-year-old woman just months after getting out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That\u2019s not reform \u2014 that\u2019s neglect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cCriminal justice \u2018equity\u2019 sounds noble,\u201d Lott said, \u201cbut when 90% of black murder victims are killed by black offenders, who exactly are you helping by refusing to punish repeat violent criminals?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In D.C., 96% of murder victims are black. During one stretch of federal intervention under Trump, murders virtually stopped for weeks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWhose lives do you think were saved?\u201d Lott asked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-the-bottom-line\"><strong>The Bottom Line<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Lott\u2019s message was simple: crime policy should be about saving lives, not saving narratives. And pretending violence doesn\u2019t exist just because it\u2019s underreported or redefined doesn\u2019t make anyone safer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDeterrence works. Enforcement works. And data only helps if you\u2019re honest about it,\u201d Lott said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For more hard numbers \u2014 not headlines \u2014 visit <a href=\"https:\/\/crimeresearch.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\" title=\"Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis\"><strong>crimeresearch.org<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left\" style=\"font-size:24px\"><strong><em>*** <a href=\"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"clickTracking\" campaign=\"lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\" title=\"Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Buy and Sell on GunsAmerica!<\/a> ***<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cSo when NPR runs with \u2018violent crime is falling,\u2019 they\u2019re just parroting the wrong dataset,\u201d Lott said.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":158,"featured_media":222205,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_specdata_upc":"","_specdata_placement":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[4024],"tags":[132,607,122],"featured":[],"hunt365":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-222203","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-news","8":"tag-buzz","9":"tag-news","10":"tag-r2kba"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.1 (Yoast SEO v27.3) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lott Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"On Politics By Faith, Dr. John Lott breaks down the truth about rising crime, bad data, and how weak prosecution fuels repeat violence.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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Breaks Down the Real Crime Crisis","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/lott-breaks-down-the-real-crime-crisis\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Lott_Crime_Research.jpg","datePublished":"2025-10-07T19:39:46+00:00","dateModified":"2025-10-07T19:39:53+00:00","description":"On Politics By Faith, Dr. John Lott breaks down the truth about rising crime, bad data, and how weak prosecution fuels repeat 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