{"id":190503,"date":"2023-04-19T11:29:06","date_gmt":"2023-04-19T16:29:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gunsamerica.com\/digest\/?p=178510"},"modified":"2023-04-19T11:29:06","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T16:29:06","slug":"why-the-red-state-murder-problem-is-not-a-convincing-argument-for-more-gun-control","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/gunsamerica.com\/digest\/why-the-red-state-murder-problem-is-not-a-convincing-argument-for-more-gun-control\/","title":{"rendered":"Why the ‘Red State Murder Problem’ Is Not a Convincing Argument for More Gun Control"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An argument that has been making the rounds lately among antigun politicians and gun control activists is that red states have higher murder rates than blue states in large part due to the former\u2019s lack of gun control laws. As evidence, they point to an analysis published on Third Way\u2019s website which concluded that between 2000 and 2020, \u201cthe per capita Red State murder rate was 23% higher than the Blue State murder rate when all 21 years were combined<\/a>.\u201d This was building on a prior article that was limited to looking at 2020 in particular, which found that \u201cthe 8.20 murders per 100,000 residents rate in Trump states was 40% higher than the 5.78 murders per 100,000 residents in Biden states<\/a>.\u201d Their math is not questionable. The authors have done a good job of showing their work, and they have proven the claim they made, which is that Trump-voting states average higher murder rates than Biden-voting states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem with claiming Third Way\u2019s simplistic analysis signals the need for more gun control isn\u2019t with its math but with its parameters. When it comes to the efficacy of gun control, it just isn\u2019t all that useful to limit the categories to the binary of \u201cred states\u201d and \u201cblue states.\u201d To be sure, it is true that, generally speaking, blue states have more gun control and red states have less. But there are so many exceptions to this generality that make the Third Way analysis pointless, at least insofar as its conclusions are used by others to argue for more gun control laws.[1]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

SEE ALSO: Firearm Industry Economic Impact Rises 322% Since 2008<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

To illustrate this point, here is the chart showing the murder rate in each state in 2020, categorized into blue and red states based on whether they voted for Joe Biden or Donald Trump:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Why<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s take a look at some of these blue states in terms of how much gun control they actually have in place, especially the three states with some of the lowest murder rates in the nation, New Hampshire, Maine, and Vermont.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

New Hampshire gets an \u201cF\u201d<\/a> from the gun control group Giffords, because it does not have universal background checks, does not require any permit to carry, has no \u201cassault weapon\u201d restrictions or magazine capacity limits, and so on. The state voted for Joe Biden, but when it comes to gun laws, it is less strict than even some Trump-voting states. The same is true for Maine, another which gets an \u201cF\u201d<\/a> from Giffords. Vermont, the original constitutional carry state, does mildly better because it has universal background checks and a magazine capacity law that was enacted in 2018 as a feel-good measure (the state had no serious crime problem). Still, it only gets a \u201cC-\u201c<\/a> from Giffords because it lacks licensing laws, \u201cassault weapon\u201d restrictions, a carry permit requirement, and so on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SEE ALSO: Henry\u2019s All-New Big Boy Revolvers! \u2014 NRA 2023<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While those are the most extreme examples, others exist too. Oregon has recently boosted its Giffords grade because it voted to enact gun licensing and magazine capacity limits (those efforts are stalled due to litigation<\/a>), but as of 2020, it got only a \u201cC+\u201d from Giffords. Minnesota also gets a \u201cC+\u201d because it doesn\u2019t have universal background checks, magazine capacity limits, and more. Other examples can be raised, but the point should be clear by now; there are many Biden-voting states that are either extremely friendly to gun rights or at least much more friendly than the flagship blue states like California and New York.[2] Essentially, the antigun side is using the very low murder rates in some pro-gun states to show that Democrat-favored policies on guns (i.e. gun control) work to lower murder rates. It\u2019s extremely misleading. Using the 2020 election results as the way to categorize states may be valid in some contexts, but there are too many exceptions for it to be useful in a discussion of gun law efficacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, this isn\u2019t the only way the data is misleading, even when limited to red states. It is widely known that to the extent there is a \u201cred state murder problem,\u201d it is mostly the cities causing this problem. Missouri makes for an excellent case study on this phenomenon. According to the CDC, in 2021 Missouri had a total of 716 homicides, or a rate of 11.6 per 100,000. That figure is significantly higher than the national average in 2021, which the CDC data tells us was 7.8 per 100,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SEE ALSO: Concealed Carrier Shoots Attacker In Cemetery<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

But where<\/em> were those homicides in Missouri? For the most part, they were in just three counties out of dozens. Specifically, Jackson County (containing Kansas City), St. Louis County, and St. Louis City. These three areas covering two major cities combine for a total population of 2,007,359, while their homicides added up to 523 in 2021. This means that while these counties account for just 32.5% of Missouri\u2019s population, they are responsible for about 73% of the state\u2019s homicides. In other words, if you are one of the approximately two-thirds of Missourians who don\u2019t live in Jackson County, St. Louis County, or St. Louis City, your homicide rate isn\u2019t really 11.6 per 100,000. It instead drops to roughly 4.6 per 100,000 when those counties are excluded, well below the US national average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Why<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

To the extent party affiliations are meaningful, Kansas City\u2019s last Republican mayor left office in 1991<\/a>. St. Louis\u2019s last Republican Mayor left office in 1949<\/a>. In Missouri, the two big blue cities drive up homicide rates, not the rest of the state, which leans much more conservative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

SEE ALSO: IWI\u2019s Carmel Rifle \u2014 NRA 2023<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the \u201cred state murder problem\u201d moniker is misleading because of the giant variance even just among red states themselves. There isn\u2019t really a red state murder problem, but a southern<\/em> state murder problem. Look again at Third Way\u2019s chart posted above. Every red state listed with a murder rate higher than 10 per 100,000 is a Southern state (though Missouri and Kentucky both straddle the line between the South and Midwest). There are several red states on the list with low murder rates, such as Idaho, Utah, Iowa, and more. They just aren\u2019t in the South, as this 2020 map demonstrates:  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Why<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source – <\/strong>https:\/\/landgeist.com\/2022\/08\/13\/homicide-rate-in-the-us\/<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We aren\u2019t going to resolve our problems with violent crime by lazily pointing to states based on their 2020 votes and declaring them \u201cgood\u201d and \u201cbad.” A complex problem requires a complex analysis, and not just the two simplistic categories that go into the \u201cred state murder problem.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

***<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1]<\/a> The article\u2019s authors don\u2019t definitively say why it is that red states have a higher murder rate, but they offer several reasons why they suspect that to be the case. These include guns, poverty, educational attainment, and social services. On guns, they write<\/a> that \u201cGun ownership rates are far higher in red states than blue states. Studies have estimated that gun ownership rates are as much as twice as high in a typical red state than a typical blue state. Since 79% of all homicides are committed with a firearm, it stands to reason that more guns will produce more murders, not less.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2]<\/a> It doesn\u2019t really go both ways. Not one Trump-voting state gets higher than a \u201cC-\u201d from Giffords.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*** Buy and Sell on GunsAmerica!<\/a> ***<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Using the 2020 election results as the way to categorize states may be valid in some contexts, but there are too many exceptions for it to be useful in a discussion of gun law efficacy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":157,"featured_media":178516,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_specdata_upc":"","_specdata_placement":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[234],"tags":[132,586],"featured":[],"hunt365":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-190503","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-columns","8":"tag-buzz","9":"tag-column"},"yoast_head":"\n'Red State Murder Problem' Is Not a Convincing for Gun Control<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"In Missouri, the two big blue cities drive up homicide rates, not the rest of the state, which leans much more conservative.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, 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