FBI NICS checks. (Photo: FBI)
I’m a big believer in the saying, “What goes up, must come down.” And if you’ve paid any attention at all to the firearms marketplace over the past year or so, it’s safe to assume that we are in the midst of a great gun boom.
That’s correct. Gun sales have been skyrocketing to record heights. In fact, news this week from the FBI shows that gun sales have been on the up and up for 17 consecutive months!
That means that since May of 2015 there as been an increase in sales when compared to the same month in the previous year. Overall, sales are up 27 percent!
For September, the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System processed a total of 1,992,219 background checks, compared with 1,795,102 from Sept. 2015.
So far this year, through nine months, there have been 19,872,694 total checks, which means we are on track to break last year’s 12-month record of 23,141,970 checks.
Now, it should be noted that not every background check corresponds to a firearms sale, as there are other reasons the FBI runs a NICS check. That said, it is a solid bellwether for gun sales.
But, as I began the article, what goes up, must come down. Sales have been surging up for a long while now, and maybe not this month or next month, the good times are going to stop — especially if Trump wins the election. If Hillary wins, it might remain a seller’s market for the foreseeable future due to her anti-gun agenda.
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Since we can’t predict the future, my advice is to really consider selling now if you’re sitting on some unwanted, extra or antique firearms that you’ve been meaning to get rid of. Yes, now is the time to sell. Because once the market comes back down there is going to be a flood of inventory in the marketplace. Then, it’ll be a buyer’s paradise.
Again, I can’t tell you when it’s going to happen but I can tell you that it is going to happen. It has to. Just think of all the new companies that have emerged over the years, all the new gun shops that have opened, all the expanding the major gun manufacturers have been doing to keep up with demand during the Obama presidency. Eventually, either via supersaturation of product or political relief (a Trump presidency will kill the urgency to buy that black rifle today) demand will slacken and supply will be bountiful.
So, if you want to get the most bang for your buck on those firearms, my advice is list now! Don’t wait.
I see a lot of truth, and a lot of Bravo Sierra in both the article and in the comments. Ladies and gentlemen, this is large country and what is good in Florida may not be good in Washington state. Yes, the economy is in shambles, you can thank every President and Congress in the last 100 years for that. Yes, I feel the gun market is up…Smith & Wesson stock went up dramatically because their sales year over year was up 40%. I have purchased 6 firearms in the last 12 months but I have not bought a single gun from a gun store this year, they have all been from private sales. So the gun store owner comments about the market not being “up” is from their perspective, not necessarily the national market itself. Ammo? I have over 25k rounds of .22 alone…purchased from everywhere from Walmart to the CMP in small batches. I am not a hoarder, I shoot 500+ rounds with my kids when we go to the range. It is, what it is…let’s break it down by region when we discuss the national market.
Could be that it is time to sell but certainly not a time to trade. I used to work with two different retailers who would give you the Blue Book price for a trade on a new firearm but recently all I hear is “we can’t give you what it’s worth, sales are down and no one is looking for a pre owned firearm,”
which is BS, but it’s their shop.
I can stand some loss on a trade but not to the extent of some of the poor offers I’ve recently encountered.
High end ARs are selling fast. Noveske, Larue, Vltor, and Knights all are selling about as fast as they can be made. don’t know about the cheap crap.
I do not understand the concept of “extra” or “unwanted” firearms.
I’m with you…….unwanted????…..Extra????? Does not compute!! Time to buy another safe and fill it up….including ammo.
A well-written article by someone who obviously has NO understanding of how a free market economy works. The law of supply & demand drives pricing in any economy, even when the supply is only perceived. This is why Obama has been the greatest gun sales tool in decades. After his election the first & second times, firearms sales skyrocketed due to his record of anti-gun statements. Prior to his inauguration, gun stores throughout the nation sold out of black guns at a never dreamed of pace. This was due to the public’s perception that the available supply of firearms was going to disappear as soon as he obtained the authority to influence the sale of firearms.
The same effect was observed with Kel Tec PMR 30 pistols. Although only a .22 WMR caliber handgun, the magazine held 30 rounds. The Liberal’s stated goal of outlawing ALL weapons with “high capacity” magazines, coupled with Kel Tec’s marketing strategy of flooding the publicity channels while simultaneously limiting the output of the pistols bounced the public market to the point where, in short order, a firearm with a dealer’s wholesale price of 242.00 was selling for over 1,400.00, when the public could find them. Likewise, the shortage of .22 LR ammunition has driven the retail price of a 500 round box up from the commonly available price of 14.99 to the neighborhood of 50.00. Why? Has the manufacturer’s cost for production increased? NO. Instead, the panic that Obama’s administration would figure out a way to make it illegal for citizens to purchase firearms & ammunition created a frenzy of people buying & hoarding ammunition “just in case”. The profit margin on centerfire ammunition is exponentially larger than what the ammunition manufacturers can expect from rimfire ammunition (even at the inflated prices mentioned above) so they have continued the manufacture of centerfire ammunition rather than diverting production resources to rimfire ammunition manufacture.
Admittedly the firearms market is its own bubble due to the state of world politics, the only way now is the time to sell is IF Trump wins the election. If Trump is elected, the risk of anti-2nd amendment political moves will be greatly decreased & the perceived supply of firearms will increase forcing resale pricing down to lower levels. If Hillary Clinton is elected instead of Trump, you can bet your bottom dollar that firearms & ammunition sales will skyrocket in a buying frenzy that will make her supporters cry when they figure out how many firearms the idea of her presidency scares American citizens into buying.
Sales are up but prices are stable. That tells me supply is finally able to keep up with demand. The buying frenzies that happened in 2008 after Obama was elected and post-New Town in 2013 caught the manufactures flat-footed. It’s taken years, but there is finally enough production capacity to reduce these politically-driven shortages.We will find out for sure if Hillary wins. We still need another factory or two making 22 rimfire ammo. Hard to get used to $5 a box as the “new normal”.
This is the biggest bs article I have seen here. Gun sales SHOULD be up but they are totally flat, from assault vintage weapons to classics. I sold two large collections by major auctions this year and took severe losses in nearly everything compared to what they should have sold for and they were guns purchased decades ago at super low prices. No one is spending because the economy is devastated. Do your research at auction realized prices before writing based on nothing more than ignorance!
This is a bunch of crap, Guns sales is not up this year. I’ve had my Gun Store open for over 5 years and this has been the worst year I have had. You need to check around with some gun store owners and seen what they have to say before you publish this crap.
Obama just commuted 102 more “low level criminal drug related” sentences yesterday. No further comment necessary. Let your imagination run wild. Betty Lou’s gettin out tonight boys.
Now is not the time to sell. Gun prices are actually down. AR 15’s are a buyers market. You can build on or buy one for $500. Poly pistols of all types and calibers can be had for around $300. Even 1911’s can be had for under $400. Ammo prices are not bad. Especially if you buy on line bulk. This is the Opinion of a former Ordinance Corp Officer who actually worked with firearms. ME.
You can say one thing for the Knucklehead in Charge….He should get the Gunsalesman of the Millennium award…..and that being said….he has created a few jobs in the gun manufacturing business for sure. I never thought I would find anything positive to say about his presidency. If something positive comes out of a negative, is it still a positive?…LOL
Now is he time. BUY more AMMO
Please, American, don’t urge us to keep buying more ammo. Manufacturers and retailer love it because hoarders make for continued empty shelves and outrageous prices. Or, YOU keep buying more ammo and I’ll cash-in when the market’s finally saturated, inventory’s up and prices come down.
This is where things are going to get rough in a Hillary Clinton administration. Ungodly taxes and fees on ammunition will be horrendous. I can’t agree with you more… now is the time to buy ammo. In an extended period of civil unrest and/or economic collapse, ammo will be gold.
Not surprising that gun sales are up. The honest citizens see the coddling of criminals by government and the main stream media crucifying cops for shooting them. It only makes one believe that they need to protect themselves, since the government won’t.
I completely agree with you my friend! This country has become so dangerous, I feel like we are living in a semi-3rd world nation.
Gov’t has failed the average person beyond belief. This gov’t is way more concerned with Criminals that good, honest citizens thanks to the likes of Crooked Puke Clinton & Barry Hussein Sleeper-Muslim Boy Baboon. The status quo of this nation forced me to finally wake up and to be prepared to protect myself since our gov’t can’t or won’t do it for us any longer.
****Please, everyone vote for TRUMP****
There soon is coming a time when the citizenry of this country will no longer be able to protect themselves. It will occur when the people have lost their right to own a firearm. Think about all the countries that have already been disarmed. The United States is a rather unique country with regards to gun ownership. We take for granted our right to protect ourselves with a firearm. You can posses all the weapons you want but if they are retroactively made illegal then what good are they other than for boat anchors. Case in point-California’s recently passed gun-mageddon legislation. Legal one day-illegal the next. God forbid you use one to protect yourself because if you do you will be arrested for certain. You’ll be punished as severely or more so than the perp who was going to do you harm. People in other states such as Texas and Arizona pity us but the mere stroke of a pen can put them in the same situation as CA. Always vote for the politician whom you believe will do you the least harm.