Clay’s Gun Industry Predictions for 2018

A view from atop the hill at SHOT Show Media Day at the Range 2018.

Welcome, dear readers, to my predictions for 2018 as it relates to our favorite hobby, the one that goes bang. Unlike most 2018 firearms industry prediction lists, I like to do mine after SHOT Show. That way it takes longer than three weeks for me to have to try and forget I made this list with a bottle of Jameson.

SHOT gives us some insights into coming trends, especially when you cover as much ground as the GunsAmerica crew does. We walked so much, I had to stop by Zamberlan and ask for new boots the last day. I tried to take a pedometer, but my boss said, “No.” Probably because he’d have to give me a raise if I knew the actual number of miles I moved across the floor. It’s a tough job, getting to look at all the new stuff, but somebody has to do it.

In addition to acquiring enough stickers and patches to cover another gun safe, I came home with these prognostications for next 12 months. Sit back and enjoy, you can type me your rebuttals — and tell me how right or wrong I was — on December 31, 2018.

1) 224 Valkyrie Changes the AR Platform

Savage MSR15 224 Valkyrie at SHOT 2018.

That is a bold statement to make about a cartridge, especially in the AR category. We have been taken to the dance many times before by 6.8mm Remington SPC, 6.5mm Grendel, 22-45 Sharps, and 22 Nosler. While there are still guns available for each of those rounds, none have been what I would call a wild success. While they are ballistically sound, they never really caught on enough to make ammunition affordable, which is the best indicator of whether a product goes mainstream. Can the Average Joe buy a box without taking out a second mortgage?

I was excited about 22 Nosler, until I figured out it makes 5.56 bullets 300 fps faster. I can get 150 fps increase just by going to a 24-inch barrel. It’s going to take more than that for me to invest in a new caliber.

The Valkyrie has the potential to actually make it. The initial numbers look good, even if we acknowledge that ammo makers almost always embellish about performance. More importantly, this round is getting a major push from Federal, a little startup that makes a few bullets each year.

Valkyrie rounds are already selling for 56 cents each, cheaper than your average .300 AAC Blackout. It has a good name. Valkyrie sounds like something you want to defend the shores with. (Though, name is not enough. Grendel had a catchy name too and it hasn’t gained mainstream acceptance.) It has an amazing Ballistic Coefficient, even if it proves to be 15 percent high. I have been surprised before, but 15 percent seems to be a pretty close margin to marketing hype vs real-world testing.

SEE ALSO: NEW: .224 Valkyrie: A Gas Gun Hot Rod for Long Range Shooters — FULL REVIEW

Will it out fly a 6.5 Creedmoor? Not a chance, but it doesn’t fire from a Creedmoor-sized gun. Can you make a Wildcat that will beat it? Sure. But you will need three to beat it in every category. Riflemakers have already lined up behind this round too, an important step. This may very well be the AR-15 we have been waiting for, and I think it will catch like wildfire. At least for those of us with access to a shooting range that goes past 300 meters.

2) Golden Age of Concealed Carry Continues

Make sure to check out my series: 9 Critical Concealed Carry Lessons.

Concealed Carry is growing by leaps and bounds. We live in a very uncertain world, and more people are starting to exercise their rights in this regard. Also, largely, the political winds are blowing in our favor. My state went to Constitutional Carry last summer, joining the growing ranks of truly free states. The Concealed Carry Reciprocity Act has actually passed the House, though it still has quite a journey before it becomes law. So far, nothing but good news over the last year.

Gun makers have responded to this market with gusto. Springfield Armory has introduced or updated several models, including the first .380 in their line. SIG is crushing it with the new 10+1 P365, and Ruger has introduced a 9mm with a price tag of $299 MSRP.

Across the board, concealed carry guns are getting better and cheaper, a win for consumers. And if you want something classy to go with your tux, the niche is growing for those too. The Wilson EDC 9x retails for just south of $3,000, way to rich for this writer’s blood. But the point is, we have options like never before. This is the golden age of concealed carry handguns, and I expect we will see more winners as the year goes by.

3) Not Everyone Survives the Trump Slump

The Trump Slump is real.

It isn’t all good news out there. Sales are down, and it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see it. Go check the stock price of the major players, you will see what I mean. AR companies are no longer running three shifts per day, and it seems like every other week we hear about layoffs in and around the industry. This is a natural market correction for the insanity we saw during the reign of Barry Hussein Obama, the best gun salesman in the history of the world.

With three more years of safety ahead (hopefully), thanks to the current administration, many people have shifted funds to other things, like drinking copious amounts of victory whiskey. So, there isn’t enough pie to go around, and therefore some makers will be starved out. Considering that three years ago you could start up an AR business in your garage and sell everything you could make that was even close to in spec, not a real surprise that there are hard times ahead. I think we will lose one of the top 10 makers, and there will be a big cut to the little guys.

This obviously sucks if you are the guy that programs the CNC machine, but it’s great if you are a consumer. Business is already cutthroat out there, with prices falling through the floor. I see deals everyday that I know are below dealer cost, directed towards the end user. If you have some spare coins laying around, this is an awesome time to buy. Not only for your own use, but as a hedge against inflation.

Groceries bills, on average, are up 54 percent over the last decade. But AR lowers are down at least that since 2014. I can remember seeing stripped AR lowers for $300 after Sandy hook, and people paying it. Today I can buy an assembled lower, with Magpul furniture on GunsAmerica, for $150. Ten AR lowers don’t take up much space in the hall closet. I recommend common pistols or ARs, they never go out of style. And the next time a gun banner gets into the White House, you stand to reap a hefty reward.

4) HPA is Dead, But Suppressors Rebound Anyhow

Don’t wait for HPA to pass.  Because it’s not going to.  At least not anytime soon.

No legislation has ever shot its lobbyist in the foot quite like the Hearing Protection Act (HPA). All we heard leading up to Trump’s election, from the suppressor community no less, was “HPA will be passed in the first 90 days.” Well, this proved foolish, to say the least.

First, it doesn’t matter what the President thinks, Congress creates the laws. Anyone that thought a thin majority was going to spend precious political capital on legislation to please 1,000,000 potential voters across the country is math challenged. The very few times HPA has been seriously talked about, the Demon-crats have raised holy hell about assassin tools and blood in the streets.

Unfortunately, we have two problems. One, our own Representatives are both clueless and spineless. Two, the average man on the street is a complete and total moron. It doesn’t matter if suppressed gunshots are only slightly quieter than a jackhammer, we have a long road to convince the unwashed masses. And given the rogue FBI, the lack of a border wall, and trannies in the Army, I would say we have bigger fish to fry. Yes, I agree the regulation of suppressors and SBRs is unconstitutional anyway. But we have more important fights on our hands.

So, I think this will sink in with the suppressor consumers. We should continue to fight the bureaucracy in place that takes six months to a year to give us a stamp. We should demand efficiency. But we should also accept that the tax stamp is here to stay. Besides, when was the last time a government willfully gave up a tax? What I thought.

A good option for now: go ahead and buy if you live in a place you can. (Get it? “Can” – That is a suppressor joke.) Prices are down, and rebates abound. Technology is still making suppressors better than ever, and you can enjoy yours while your friends wait on the HPA to pass. And unicorns to roam the plains in packs.

5) Hi-Point 10mm Carbine Spawns Many Imitators

Hi-Point 10mm. Tested, and ready to field.

Yes, I just wrote that sentence. Let me explain now that you have spit coffee all over the keyboard.

Pistol Caliber Carbines, or PCC’s, have been selling like hotcakes. Two years ago you would be lucky to find one, and luckier yet to find one that works. Now, it seems like every maker under the sun has one in 9mm. Why? Well, they have proven to be fun, cheap to feed, and handy.

Another reason? Homeowners that think rifles are scary have bought them for home defense, with the thought being that they’re easier to shoot than a handgun. And that is sorta right, changes in velocity notwithstanding. USPSA opened up a competitive division for them, which also helped to bump sales. But the key here is 9mm. Almost every model on the market is 9mm only, which is fine for plinking.

The next logical step is 10mm, the handgun cartridge all others strive to be. It was created to be magazine fed, it has power on par with a .300 Blackout, and a wide range of loadings. Its overall length is negligible in a carbine, it seems like a perfect fit. And yet, the only 10mm carbine I could find at the entire SHOT Show was from Hi-Point. Sure, Noveske had a “ mock-up.” Might as well have been a CAD drawing, it didn’t even have a trigger.

Hi-Point is past field testing, and models will be on shelves any day. Credit where credit is due, Hi-Point has shamed the industry. They had the brass balls to lead the charge, and I think others will catch up over the year. And if they don’t, screw em. I’m buying the Hi-Point as soon as I see one. At an MSRP of $379, how can you not?

Conclusion

Well, there you have it.  My five predictions for 2018.  If you have any of your own you’d like to throw into the mix, list them in the comment section.  We can all circle back to this column in December to see how we faired.