With Donald Trump’s return to the White House, the firearms industry may once again be looking at a “Trump Slump”—a dip in gun sales linked to decreased urgency among gun owners to buy firearms.
When a pro-gun president occupies the Oval Office, as we saw during Trump’s previous term, the sense of immediate threat to gun rights often fades.
This can have a real impact on the bottom line for firearm retailers, who have historically seen sales surge under more restrictive administrations (Obama and Biden were the best gun salesmen of all time!).
Throughout Trump’s first term, gun sales lagged compared to the Obama years. The reason?
Gun owners felt relatively secure that their rights weren’t under immediate threat. When Biden took office, that calculus changed: sales spiked as fears of stricter regulations resurfaced.
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However, with Trump’s recent win, that anxiety has diminished once again.
The NRA congratulates President @realDonaldTrump on his hard-fought victory.
— NRA (@NRA) November 6, 2024
Gun owners across the country will once again have a strong advocate for their Second Amendment rights in the White House.
The NRA-PVF endorsed President Trump in May of 2016 in his first successful… pic.twitter.com/OHDf0rti3j
The phenomenon of a “Trump Slump” raises an interesting point about what drives gun sales in the U.S. For many Americans, firearm purchases are closely linked to political concerns.
The threat of new regulations often spurs people to act, buying up firearms and ammunition to ensure they’re protected against potential future bans.
Under a pro-gun administration, the sense of urgency to stock up recedes, slowing sales across the industry.
Additionally, Trump’s firm stance on gun rights and his promises to roll back existing restrictions may make many gun owners feel even more secure.
Measures like repealing red-flag laws, de-regulating suppressors, and eliminating ATF’s firearm registry could significantly reduce the perceived need to buy guns immediately.
If Trump follows through on his promises, gun rights advocates may feel that their concerns are finally being addressed, further dampening the impulse to “buy while you can.”
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In fact, during Trump’s first term, gun retailers noted a decline in demand, with many citing a lack of fear-based motivation among consumers. Without the looming threat of new restrictions, firearms weren’t flying off the shelves at the rate seen during the Obama administration or the beginning of Biden’s term.
This slump even impacted large manufacturers, causing some to scale back production and adjust to a less frenzied market.
However, the industry isn’t without options. Gun manufacturers and retailers can adjust their strategies to account for changes in the political landscape.
While fear and urgency have traditionally driven sales, companies could shift their marketing efforts to focus on recreational shooting, hunting, and self-defense training rather than relying solely on the threat of regulation to spark interest.
Another potential avenue is promoting accessories and upgrades, like optics and customizations, which appeal to current gun owners who may not feel the need to buy another firearm but are open to enhancing their existing ones.
Some argue that even without the “fear factor,” the firearms industry will remain robust, pointing to the millions of first-time buyers who entered the market in recent years.
This influx of new gun owners could sustain demand for accessories, training, and support services, even if firearm sales themselves dip.
Ultimately, while Trump’s election is welcome news for many of us, it may carry mixed implications for the firearms industry. Without the specter of looming restrictions, the frenzied buying of recent years could see a slowdown.
The industry has weathered these cycles before, but adapting to a calmer political climate will require a fresh approach and an understanding that the “Trump Slump” may well be back.
What say you?
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If inflation actually eases off and our every day purchase proces on gas and groceries comes down, people will be able to make some more discretionary spending . I doubt the past three and a half years have been very good at all for new gun purchases.
Trump slump .I can’t believe your complaining you should be happy to you it’s all about the money
I guess that emotions play a large part of any markets’ reaction to threats (or lack of threats) to take away a given commodity.
That said, I’ve always found it interesting (bizarrely interesting) how people will go on a gun, ammunition, accessory frenzy after the election of a “gun-hating” politician or a tragic shooting (like Sandy Hook) when the prices are outrageously high and the supply (selection) is potentially low.
For example BEFORE the Sandy Hook School shooting tragedy the gun stores were practically giving WASR AK-style rifles away. AFTER the Sandy Hook tragedy I saw WASRs selling for ≈ $2.5 k. Magazines (plus other accessories) and ammunition became scarce and crazy expensive.
My question is simple, if you want or need a firearm (plus ammo & accessories) that’s always in jeopardy of being banned…why on God’s magnificent green earth are you NOT buying one now?
Remember to ALWAYS buy low and sell high (this is how the rich get richer).
good maybe “gun chow” will drop and i can get more range time!
There will be a decent surge in used gun sales and trade-ins, as people exchange their panic-purchases, for something more sensible and available (especially if they had ever got around to shooting it). more purchases may be deemed worthy of a decent wait, just to get the right (vs any-damn) gun. more time and thought will be taken at the guncounter, and a more expensive/specialised/custom-featured selection may be made, with the panic buy as trade-in. There may be added counterspace just for “reduced-price kamala-panic-purchase trade-ins”.
Agree, with a bloated guns and ammo inventory , prices will fall, I honestly hope Trump will put the FBI and the ATF in their place, or abolish them altogether, I agree the gun frenzy is over for now, small price to pay by gun industry , but a well packaged combo like a tikka with scope and suppressor could trigger a buy , even in a dull market.
So a temporary dip in sales far outweighs having that Witch in the oval office.
In a down market you BUY. BUY, BUY, BUY. Especially if ammo prices come down, which, if the market is left alone they will.
WHY?
Because at some point the political winds will shift once again in the wrong direction and because those bent on authoritarianism will NEVER sleep when it comes to dismantling the 2A.
Let’s swamp President Trump with letters making the purchase of a firearm and it’s ammunition 100% tax deductible. Would you buy a new gun a month? Or two or…..
Did you ever stop to think that with more disposable income with Trump in office they may actually have more money to buy luxury guns?
If a “Trump slump” in gun sales is caused by being tougher on crime by law enforcement, isn’t that a good thing? Anything to cause ripples where there don’t need to be any. This won’t stop me from buying any gun I’m interested in. Gun people gonna buy guns, the people who feel a little safer, maybe not so many.
If there is a slump, it would be nice if it lowered prices. That would sure help un–slump any slump!
I totally agree that hopefully the prices might come down a little. Maybe the ammunition companies will quit gouging us on the price and come down more. The only ammo shortage’s seem to be at the manufacturer to keep prices up. I know because I’m a retired manufacturing engineer.
One way to prevent the ‘slump’ would be to make suppressors totally legal without a special tax.
Some humans just like to complain……it’s to hot or to cold, WTF. Maybe this so called slump will lower firearms prices with any luck, lets talk abot that. As a matter of fact if gun prices are lower, more law abiding citizen in the lower income bracket could purchase them. Wouldn’t that be a good thing?
I hope we are, especially on ammo. Prices are ridiculous. The only ammo ive been buying is 22. The otber weapons sit idle in the safe.
Just drop prices on firearms and there shouldn’t be any slump in sales.
I agree. Get the prices back where they should be and you’ll have more sales. If the firearm itself doesn’t cost too much then the ammo does! Why am I going to buy something that’s just going to sit in the safe because I can’t afford the accessories that make it work? I have enough things around that collect dust. Don’t need anymore.
Good. Maybe prices will start to reflect this.
With all due respect to the firearms dealers, the ability to take a breath and maybe even a break on prices and availability is a great thing. Panic pricing and availability gets really old. We need that break and the country needs leadership. Believe me, it passes all too quickly.
I get get why some may “feel” safe…but what exactly did he do for gun owners his last presidency? Other than ban bump stocks and talk to us like he understands us…and peddle overpriced trump themed merchandise thru his son or political action group?
“…what exactly did he do for gun owners his last presidency?”
This question seems to be posed often by pro 2A people where I have made an effort to answer their question but I wonder what efforts they have made on their own behalf. I supposed the recurring theme is do in part because people seek perfection in politicians. That is a mistake, Trump supporters understand that he is the best choice in a field of dire choices.
So go ahead and list your compliants against Trump but weight thoses issue against the fact that he reversed the ex order by BHO Social Security representative payee massive illegal gun ban (look into it for futher details). Consider the grave harm in judicial appoints in the two previous admins before and since the Trump admin. Now with youtube, anyone who was NOT shocked by some recent appointments are either ignorant, anti-American or both.
Trump has supported the preservation of the Dickey Admendment and has stuied the Nixon ban of firarms on federal lands. Trump supports CC reciprocity legislation and other CC issues. Trump’s admin was bogged down with court challenges on just about every issue starting on day 1 with his own AG, Jeff Sessions recusing himself and Flynn and Manifort ended up in legal jeopardy since the the Trump admin was NOT pushing for the destructive Soros war between Russia and the Ukraine.
Why don’t you now list any and all US POTUS that you will argue rate higher on the 2A than Trump. My guess, your list is really short.
Wow, one article about a drop in sales from a “trump Slump” and another article about pro-gun candidates sweeping the election. Sure is hard to please some people, isn’t it?